6 good things to expect from portland's ranked choice voting election
Originally published in the Portland Tribune on Nov. 4, 2024
As Portland voters have now experienced, we are using a voting method that’s new to Portland, but in action around the world: multi-winner Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). As someone passionate about data and democracy, I have spent the past year researching RCV and examining Portland’s historical election results as part of a volunteer team at North Star Civic Foundation.
Based on my research, I’m personally excited about its potential to enhance representation for residents across the city, reflecting their diverse perspectives on what’s important to make our city prosper. Here are six benefits I anticipate from Portland’s city council elections this fall.
The Geographic Representation Desert Disappears
Areas east of 50th Street and north of Fremont Street have had fewer City Council representatives for all of Portland history. I call it a “representation desert.” The newly created City Council districts will structurally ensure better representation across the city. After the election, 25% of the council will represent District 1, which lies east of 82nd Street. The multi-winner format and increased number of council members will further improve the odds of diverse geographic representation. I expect to see council members living throughout the city, including underrepresented areas like St. Johns and Southeast Portland. That said, winning representation for the first time in some areas will not erase decades of harm from not having it.
Outer East Voters Show Up:
Historically, 54% of voters in Outer East (now District 1) have participated in city council elections, compared to 64% citywide — a 10 percentage point gap. I believe that a major part of this turnout gap was due to Outer East Portlanders feeling that few candidates represented their community or interests. With three council members dedicated to representing Outer East, I expect that District 1 residents will be more excited to voice their opinions in this election. Shooting from the hip, I’m optimistic this turnout gap will shrink from 10 to 5 percentage points.
More Competitive Contests:
Since 2000, 70% of council seat contests have been uncompetitive. With the switch to multi-winner RCV, I expect all four districts will experience competitive contests, where even a 5% swing in votes could change the results. Multi-winner RCV should deliver closer contests because of vote transfers among voters’ preferred candidates as contests narrow. Voters will also distribute votes to more candidates since each contest will elect three council members instead of one.
Increased Voter Support for Winning Candidates:
Historically, 70% of council members have won elections with votes from less than 35% of registered voters. Council members were often elected in low-turnout primaries where a small group of voters selected winners for multiple citywide seats. With the elimination of primary elections and the adoption of multi-winner districts, I expect voter support to increase, because more voters turn out to vote in general elections than in primaries and the number of winning votes will rise from 50% to around 75% under multi-winner RCV. As a result, many more Portlanders will vote for at least one candidate elected to the City Council.
Greater Voice for Women and Minorities:
Portland’s voters are 51% women and 30% people of color. However, since 2000, the city council has been predominantly composed of white men. Women have held only 24% of the seats and people of color have held only 12% of elected seats. I expect this November to mark a shift towards more equitable representation. Currently the distribution of “strong” candidates (by fundraising and number of endorsements) in the current city council race is 39% female and 25% POC. In terms of capturing seats, I expect those ratios to hold steady with women candidates winning 4-5 seats and candidates of color winning 2-3 seats out of the 12 total seats.
Steady Voter Turnout Citywide:
Based on analysis of other U.S. cities that have adopted RCV, I don’t foresee significant changes in overall voter turnout due to this new election method. Portland’s general election turnout for local elections over the past 4 presidential election years has averaged 64% for city council races and 74% for mayoral races. I anticipate turnout this November will be close to those rates.
That all said, one election does not establish a trend. The long-term effects of RCV will only become clear after we have elected over 50 council members through this new system, which will take at least eight elections, or until around 2040. Our research team’s work can be found at Stumptown Stats https://www.stumptownstats.org/ and we will be measuring the outcomes from the upcoming election and posting our findings on Stumptown Stats as well.
